SavilleSEZ

I took a beating last week in my semi-final playoff  predictions.  I was undefeated in the quarter-finals, but missed the majority of my picks last week.  A lot of close games in the semi’s and you can expect some exciting championship games.

4A CHAMPIONSHIP

CITY HIGH (13-0) VS MARSHALLTOWN (13-0):  This game will feature two of the best quarterbacks in the state in A.J Derby and Chanse Creekmur. Derby has 1,515 yards passing and and 20 touchdowns. The future Hawkeye has also rushed for 670 yards and 13 touchdowns. Creekmur has 3,011 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. Over the last two seasons Chanse has 5,255 yards passing (nearly 3 miles). The key for City High will be putting pressure on the 6′7 Creekmur and forcing him to make bad decisions.  The Little Hawks have a balanced attack and can beat you on the ground with Ellis Jordan who has rushed for 1,211 yards this season.  Because of the Little Hawks balanced attack and great defense I like City High to win their first state title since 1996.

PREDICTION: CITY HIGH 35 MARSHALLTOWN 21

3A CHAMPIONSHIP:  PELLA (10-3) VS HARLAN (13-0):  Harlan has dominated everyone again this season averaging 40 points on offense and giving up just 5 points on defense.  The Cyclones have won 11 state titles and should add a 12th.

3a PREDICTION:  HARLAN 35 PELLA 14

2A CHAMPIONSHIP: SOLON (13-0) VS BOYDEN HULL/ROCK VALLEY (13-0): Solon will has won 40 straight and is gunning for their 3rd straight state title.  The Spartans have racked up 5,228 yards on offense this season and it could of been 10,000.  The Spartans have the best all-around player in the state state in future Hawkeye James Morris.  James has rushed for 2,033 yards and 36 touchdowns and has thrown for 445 yards and 6 scores.  But Morris is not a one man show, the Spartans have serveral guys that can beat you(checkout my blog on Solon).  A Solon-Harlan match-up would be a much better game.

PREDICTION: SOLON 42 BOYDEN HULL/ROCK VALLEY 14

1A CHAMPIONSHIP: SOUTH WINN (12-1) VS CB ST. ALBERT (13-0):  9th ranked South Winn is the most underrated team in the state.  Jordan Andrea has rushed for 2,041 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Warriors defense is only giving up 9 points a game and they seem to always come up with big plays.  St. Albert is undefeated, but they haven’t faced a team with the heart of South Winn. 

1A PREDICTION: SOUTH WINN 21 ST. ALBERT 14

How would Class 2a football powerhouse Solon do against 4a teams? I have been asked that question over and over the last couple of years and I will answer it later in this blog.  

Solon won their 40th straight game Monday shutting out #2 North Fayette 35-0 in the 2A semi-finals. James Morris ran for 3 touchdowns. One was a 90 yarder, another covered 80 yards. He also threw a 71 yard t.d bomb to Dean Klosterman. Wes Sleeper hit Derrick Loveless for another touchdown before halftime. It was 35 zip at the break and that’s how it ended. Solon will now play Boyden Hull-Rock Valley for the 2A title Saturday morning.

I have watched hundreds of high school football in the state of Iowa (covering games in all classes).  The past three season’s Solon has had 4a talent playing 2a football and nobody has come close to them. 

The biggest difference between 4a and 2a football is depth and talent at every position.  Solon has the best all-around player in the state in James Morris, but one player is not enough to dominate every football game. Solon is loaded with 4a talent at every position.  Derrick Loveless and Dean Klosterman are big time receivers that could start on most 4a football teams. 6″3 Wes Sleeper has good size at QB and he could play for most 4a football teams. RB Andy Ashton has 14 touchdowns this season and at times looks like James Morris Junior. Ashton could also play for most 4a schools.

All of these star players go both ways and are just as dominant on defense. Some 4a teams don’t play their star players on both sides of the ball.

Yes, Solon could match-up and beat most 4a teams, because they have the depth and talent across the board. This group will go down as one of the most dominant teams in the history of Iowa high school football. The Spartans have racked up over 5,000 yards of total offense this season and if they really wanted to it could of been 10,000 yards.

BCS STANDINGS

1 Florida .9833 1 1 2793 .9800 1 1460 .9898 1 25 24 24 24 25 25 .980
2 Alabama .9521 2 3 2694 .9453 3 1388 .9410 2 24 25 25 25 23 23 .970
3 Texas .9261 3 2 2711 .9512 2 1397 .9471 4 23 23 23 21 21 21 .880
4 TCU .8685 4 4 2479 .8698 4 1277 .8658 5 21 22 21 22 22 22 .870
5 Cincinnati .8536 5 5 2349 .8242 5 1219 .8264 3 22 21 22 23 24 24 .910
6 Boise State .7950 6 6 2317 .8130 6 1183 .8020 7 20 20 19 19 18 19 .770
7 Georgia Tech .7716 7 7 2168 .7607 7 1127 .7641 6 19 19 20 20 20 20 .790
8 LSU .6648 8 10 1813 .6361 10 956 .6481 8 18 18 14 17 19 18 .710
9 Pittsburgh .6569 12 9 1895 .6649 9 997 .6759 10 16 11 16 16 15 16 .630
10 Ohio State .6495 11 8 1960 .6877 8 1019 .6908 11 15 16 17 13 8 13 .570
11 Oregon .6265 13 11 1699 .5961 11 875 .5932 9 17 17 18 18 17 17 .690
12 Oklahoma State .4708 19 13 1408 .4940 13 750 .5085 15 12 13 12 7 2 10
13 Iowa .4529 10 14 1176 .4126 15 584 .3959 12 14 14 15 10 12 15 .550
14 Penn State .4127 18 12 1467 .5147 12 772 .5234 21 9 12 10 1 0 0 .200
15 Virginia Tech .4036 21 16 976 .3425 16 558 .3783 13 11 1 13 14 13 12 .490
16 Wisconsin .3583 20 15 1134 .3979 14 630 .4271 19 13 5 11 3 0 6 .250
17 Stanford .3406 NR 17 946 .3319 17 516 .3498 17 6 10 3 11 11 7 .340
18 USC .2714 9 20 576 .2021 21 239 .1620 14 10 9 9 12 16 14 .450
19 Oregon State .2487 23 22 492 .1726 20 256 .1736 16 8 7 7 15 14 11 .400 20 Miami (FL) .1936 14 24 442 .1151 24 156 .1058 18 7 2 8 9 10 8 .320
21 Utah .1910 16 21 568 .1993 23 212 .1437 20 5 15 6 2 3 9 .230
22 Brigham Young .1874 22 18 793 .2782 18 404 .2739 27 0 8 1 0 0 0 .010 23 Clemson .1829 NR 19 578 .2028 19 274 .1858 23 3 0 4 4 6 5 .160
24 Houston .1150 15 23 484 .1698 22 229 .1553 26 0 0 5 0 0 2 .020

4a Semi-Finals

#8 Xavier (10-2) vs #1 City High (12-0): City High won the first meeting between these two teams in week three 24-17.   Xavier is the most improved team in the state and they are winning with defense,(holding Linn Mar to 3 points and Clinton to just 6.)  I think playing on the turf will be an advantage to City High. Running back Ellis Jordan has rushed for 1,211 yards and is extremely quick. This should be another clone one and I like defense come playoff time.  

XAVIER 21 CITY HIGH 14

Other 4a SEMI-FINAL:  DOWLING 35 MARSHALLTOWN 31

3A SEMI-FINALS

PELLA (9-3) VS NEW HAMPTON (10-2): Both teams are averaging about 30 points a game and this should be another close one.

NEW HAMPTON 28 PELLA 21

OTHER 3A SEMI-FINAL: HARLAN 28 CARROLL 14

2A SEMI-FINALS

SOLON (12-0) VS NORTH FAYETTE (12-0):  Solon has won 39 straight games and has dominated opponents this season averging 47.5 points a game.  North Fayette is almost as dominating averaging 45.5 points a game. James Morris is the best all-around football player in the state and he is the X-factor once again. 

SOLON 45 NORTH FAYETTE 21

OTHER 2A SEMI-FINAL: BOYDEN-HULL 28 IKM-MANNING 21

CLASS 1A SEMI-FINALS

WEST BRANCH (12-0) VS SOUTH WINNESHIEK (11-1):  Both team average about 40 points a game and only give 10 points a contest. Cole Kelly has rushed for 1,856 yards and 24 touchdowns this season for West Branch. Jordan Andera has 1,911 yards and 22 touchdowns. Who ever can run the football will win this game.

WEST BRANCH 21 SOUTH WINN 14

OTHER 1A SEMI-FINAL: ST. ALBERT 35 PRAIRIE VALLEY 21

CLASS A SEMI-FINALS: NORTH TAMA (12-0) VS NEWMAN CATHOLIC (11-1): North Tama has 10 shutouts on the season and the Redhawks have only given up 18 points all year.  Defense wins Championships!

NORTH TAMA 21 NEWMAN CATHOLIC 7

OTHER A SEMI-FINAL: MADRID 28 SOUTHERN CAL 24

Some of the top athletes in the history of Iowa will be playing at the state volleyball tournament this week in Cedar Rapids.  You can start with Hanna Wilms of Dike New Hartford. Wilms has committed to play volleyball at Iowa State next season. Hanna in my mind is the best overall track and field athlete in the history of Iowa.  Wilms can high jump over 6 feet, run a 54 second 400, and a 24 seconds 200.  With her size, speed, and jumping ability, Wilms could be an olympic heptathlete! I asked Hanna about competing in the heptathlon in college, and her response was the what?   She will also compete in track and field in college, but it is tough to do both and her first love in volleyball.

6′4 junior Kia Stokes helped lead Linn-Mar to the state volleyball tournament for the first time in school history. Stokes is also one of the top basketball recruits in the country and played for the U.S Junior National team last summer.

Jessica Gehrke is another track star who plays volleyball for Iowa City West.  Gehrke can run a 24 second 200 and long jump 19 feet. Jessica will run track for Florida International next season.

The defending 3a state champion Marion Indians are led by basketball star Morgan Paige. Morgan will play basketball for the Badgers next season.  Paige is one of the more intense high school athletes I have watched over the years. I had the pleasure of watching one of the Marion Volleyball practices early this season and she was going 100 miles an hour the whole practice.

The list of tremendous athletes playing in the state volleyball tournament goes on and on.. Kristen Hahn(Kennedy) Carly Cochrane (Mt. Vernon)…etc… The Mustangs have three division one players, Brianna Strong (Northern Colorado), Ali Stark (Illinois), Courtney Kintzel(UNI). The common theme, these great athletes love to play the game of volleyball.  Go check them out at the U.S Cellular Center (Nov. 11-14).

I usually don’t do this, but I am going to start making some predictions on my blog  just to spark some debate.  The game is played on the field so this is just for fun.

Xavier (9-2) at Clinton(11-0):  As I mentioned in an earlier blog I really like the way the Saints are playing and I think they will knock off undefeated Clinton friday night.  Clinton has one of the top running backs in the state in David Johnson, but the Xavier defensive line is playing lights out.  The Saints held Jer Garman to just 32 yards rushing Monday night.  Xavier is balanced on offense and Quarterback Joe Sayre will hurt the River Kings with his arm.

Prediction:  Xavier 28 Clinton 21

Washington (9-2)at City High(11-0):  This a rematch that City High won in week two 65-21.  This a much improved Wash team and they were able to move the ball early against the Little Hawks.  City High is undefeated for a reason and they can beat you on the ground or in the air.  A.J Derby has thrown 16 touchdown passes. WR John Chelf  is a deep threat with 12 T.D catches and he burned the Warriors in week two.  This will be another high scoring game, but not as lopsided as week two.

Prediction: City High  38  Wash 28

Solon (11-0) at Regina (10-1): This is another rematch game that Solon won 42-7 in week 8.  Regina has a solid defense, but as always James Morris the X-factor and the most talented football player in the state of Iowa.  Morris can beat you with his legs (1,656 yards) and even his arm.  The Spartans have won 38 straight games for a reason.

Solon 35 Regina 14

West Branch (11-0) vs Clayton Ridge (10-1)(UNI-Dome): West loves to run the football with Cole Kelly who has rushed for 1,769 yards and 24 touchdowns. Clayton Ridge has won 10 straight and in the span has only allowed 21 points.  This should be a good one… West Branch coach Butch Pederson is a tremendous motivator and they have been in this situation many times before.

Prediction: West Branch 17 Clayton Ridge 14

North Tama (11-0) vs WACO (8-3) (UNI-Dome):  The North Tama defense has only allowed 18 points all year. WACO has a couple of 1,000 yard backs in Tad Morrow and Spencer Shepherd.  They say defense wins championships and how can you pick against the Redhawks.

Prediction: North Tama 21 WACO 7

Turkey Valley  (10-1) at South Winn (10-1): These two teams just played each other in the final regular season game. Turkey Valley beat South Winn 28-14 in week 9 for the District title.  South Winn had some key injuries in that game and they are coming off a 40-6 win over defending state champion Emmestburg.  It’s hard to beat a team twice in three weeks.

Prediction: South Winn 28 Turkey Valley 21

The Xavier Saints are peaking at just the right time. The Saints won their 9th straight game Monday night beating Linn-Mar 41-3.  Xavier lost to Linn-Mar in week 2 (14-7).  Improvement during the season is a trademark of this football program, (and that is flat out great coaching)!!!!

Xavier will face undefeated Clinton Friday night and don’t count the Saints out.  Defense wins championships and Xavier dominated up front against an explosive Linn-Mar offense.  Offensively, the Saints have a talented quarterback in Joe Sayre and some big play receivers in Colin O’Conner and Ryan Sander.  In addition to the talent, this a team that will rarely beat themselves, (once again flat out great coaching). Coach Schulte teaches discipline and that is a characteristic of all championship teams. 

In short, I wouldnt want to play this Xavier team in the playoffs!!!